Well unless you've been in a 6 foot deep hole in the Iraqi countryside, oops. I mean, I'm sure you know by now that Saddam has been "smoked out". I sincerely hope that this means that all the violence in Iraq will stop, the people there will start working together to form a new government, and that our troops can come home very soon. Since the country is now free of WMD and the tyrant has been captured It should be no problem for us to pack up and leave and give the Iraqis their country back, right? Unfortunately now comes the hard part. The first thing I said to my wife yesterday after I found out about this was, "Now the civil war can begin". The different factions in Iraq now know that he is not coming back, let the power struggle begin. The best analysis I have read so far has been by, Juan Cole, scroll down to "Reflections on the Capture of Saddam Hussein". Here is the main point:

The Sunni Arab resisters to US occupation in the country's heartland had long since jettisoned Saddam and the Baath as symbols. (See "Sunnis gear up" below.) They are fighting for local reasons. Some are Sunni fundamentalists, who despised the Baath. Others are Arab nationalists who weep at the idea of their country being occupied. Some had relatives killed or humiliated by US troops and are pursuing a clan vendetta. Some fear a Shiite and Kurdish-dominated Iraq will reduce them to second class citizens. They will fight on, as Mr. Bush admitted today.

My wife, Shahin Cole, suggested to me an ironic possibility with regard to the Shiites. She said that many Shiites in East Baghdad, Basra, and elsewhere may have been timid about opposing the US presence, because they feared the return of Saddam. Saddam was in their nightmares, and the reprisals of the Fedayeen Saddam are still a factor in Iraqi politics. Now that it is perfectly clear that he is finished, she suggested, the Shiites may be emboldened. Those who dislike US policies or who are opposed to the idea of occupation no longer need be apprehensive that the US will suddenly leave and allow Saddam to come back to power. They may therefore now gradually throw off their political timidity, and come out more forcefully into the streets when they disagree with the US. As with many of her insights, this one seems to me likely correct.

There is much speculation about what is going to happen now. Most people do not believe much will change in the short term. I would imagine that be the spring we will know the effect of this on Iraq.

Will Rivers Pitt has a different take on it, We Caught The Wrong Guy. A few things from this article:

Opening paragraph...

Saddam Hussein, former employee of the American federal government, was captured near a farmhouse in Tikrit in a raid performed by other employees of the American federal government. That sounds pretty deranged, right? Perhaps, but it is also accurate. The unifying thread binding together everyone assembled at that Tikrit farmhouse is the simple fact that all of them – the soldiers as well as Hussein – have received pay from the United States for services rendered.

On the changing script...

Of course, the rhetoric mutated as the weapons stubbornly refused to be found. By the time Bush did his little ‘Mission Accomplished’ strut across the aircraft carrier, the occupation was about the removal of Saddam Hussein and the liberation of the Iraqi people. No longer were we informed on a daily basis of the “sinister nexus between Hussein and al Qaeda,” as described by Colin Powell before the United Nations in February. No longer were we fed the insinuations that Hussein was involved in the attacks of September 11. Certainly, any and all mention of weapons of mass destruction ceased completely. We were, instead, embarking on some noble democratic experiment.

And finally, why this probably won't stop the violence...

“We are not fighting for Saddam," said an Iraqi named Kashid Ahmad Saleh in a New York Times report from a week ago. "We are fighting for freedom and because the Americans are Jews. The Governing Council is a bunch of looters and criminals and mercenaries. We cannot expect that stability in this country will ever come from them. The principle is based on religion and tribal loyalties," continued Saleh. "The religious principle is that we cannot accept to live with infidels. The Prophet Muhammad, peace be on him, said, `Hit the infidels wherever you find them.' We are also a tribal people. We cannot allow strangers to rule over us."

I think through all of this what most of the American public does not understand is that the people of Iraq just want our soldiers out of their country. They are happy to have Saddam gone but now they want their country back for themselves.

- posted by Mom/Dad @ 7:44 AM